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March 16, 2009

Comments

Robin's 10 conditional probability items make sense to me. I just think he is far too optimistic about some of the probabilities. I say:

1. 99%, 2. 80%, 3. 95%, 4. .1%, 5. 5%, 6. 5%, 7. 10%, 8. 80%, 9. 90%, 10. 100%, Total: .0000135432%, around one-in-one-billion, which seems about right to me

"Brain science has workable input/output models of relevant brain cell types." In the words of Tyler, I'm just not there. And "Usual freezing quality preserved relevant model-needed details" seems pretty outlandish to me, too, but I say 5% to be deferential.

@jgm: You are basically saying that conjecture 3 has a low probability, but I think it is one of the most likely of the claims. If revival becomes possible, and the cost of revival is low, I can think of many reasons why people would be revived.

Robin's breakdown of the probability of being usefully revived after cryonics seems a lot like the type of reasoning used in the Drake equation to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilisations that we may encounter.

Does anyone here (Robin?) find the cryonics breakdown plausible but not the Drake equation?

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